Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 12.080840 14.755525 17.736091 21.282837 25.366514 29.899176 35.287906
2026-01-25 7.999218 11.330550 15.465393 20.883719 27.698641 35.885056 46.352188
2026-02-01 5.966651 9.528797 14.341026 21.119649 30.203889 41.728931 57.198961
2026-02-08 4.454136 7.956700 13.067546 20.736886 31.581482 45.971511 66.055137
2026-02-15 3.335424 6.648705 11.852203 20.128898 32.407415 49.350496 73.798183
2026-02-22 2.762883 6.054685 11.555327 20.731588 34.875347 54.998015 84.785841
2026-03-01 2.161999 5.251910 10.766930 20.430911 35.912286 58.614985 93.071708
2026-03-08 1.746083 4.681180 10.252778 20.462157 37.387931 62.874238 102.397584
2026-03-15 1.310247 3.940634 9.295865 19.605272 37.342216 64.811601 108.383522
2026-03-22 1.118729 3.682274 9.188760 20.186807 39.628316 70.353764 119.881135
2026-03-29 0.933859 3.382935 8.944648 20.475949 41.419121 75.185647 130.477546
2026-04-05 0.782248 3.119806 8.725953 20.773190 43.218717 80.087321 141.341712
2026-04-12 0.659382 2.911033 8.623620 21.350937 45.671440 86.355974 154.911729
2026-04-19 0.502333 2.534057 8.071857 20.976094 46.408812 89.901158 164.435671
2026-04-26 0.406667 2.311866 7.838372 21.214675 48.263807 95.363943 177.196912
2026-05-03 0.306363 2.014711 7.347545 20.830681 48.898355 98.767559 186.737283
2026-05-10 0.222110 1.722124 6.793473 20.220528 49.025139 101.271282 194.864796
2026-05-17 0.186763 1.627841 6.773813 20.825374 51.572916 108.098385 210.371586
2026-05-24 0.138777 1.428674 6.393637 20.523624 52.262846 111.647276 220.493019
2026-05-31 0.107071 1.290185 6.164773 20.554981 53.624341 116.443366 232.867113
2026-06-07 0.071018 1.074614 5.615548 19.695019 53.037056 117.638377 239.092469
2026-06-14 0.058864 1.021931 5.620809 20.278645 55.572370 124.700039 255.681438
2026-06-21 0.046231 0.946612 5.522181 20.568823 57.480192 130.652841 270.500626